Using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in Assessing Seismic Risk for Taipei City and New Taipei City

MING-KAI HSU; Yu-Ju Wang; Chin-Tung Cheng; Kuo-Fong Ma; Ke Siao-Syun

GSDI Conferences, GSDI 15 World Conference

MING-KAI HSU, Yu-Ju Wang, Chin-Tung Cheng, Kuo-Fong Ma, Ke Siao-Syun

Last modified: 2016-04-28

Abstract

In this study, we evaluate the seismic hazard and risk for Taipei city and new Taipei city, which are importantmunicipalities and the most populous cities in Taiwan. The evaluation of seismic risk involves the combinationof three main components: probabilistic seismic hazard model, exposure model defining the spatial distribution ofelements exposed to the hazard and vulnerability functions capable of describing the distribution of percentage ofloss for a set of intensity measure levels. Seismic hazard at Taipei city and New Taipei city assumed as the hazardmaps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceed at a 10% probability level in 50 years(return period 475 years) and a 2% probability level in 50 years (return period 2475 years) according to the TaiwanEarthquake Model (TEM), which assesses two seismic hazard models for Taiwan. The first model adopted thesource parameters of 38 seismogenic structures identified by the TEM geologists. The other model considered 33active faults and was published by the Central Geological Survey (CGS), Taiwan, in 2010. The 500m by 500mGrid-based building data were selected for the evaluation which capable of providing detail information about thelocation, value and vulnerability classification of the exposed elements. The results from this study were evaluatedby the Openquake engine, the open-source software for seismic risk and hazard assessment developed within theglobal earthquake model (GEM) initiative. Our intention is to give the first attempt on the modeling the seismicrisk from hazard in an open platform for Taiwan. An analysis through disaggregation of hazard components willbe also made to prioritize the risk for further policy making.

Keywords

Seismic hazard, Seismic risk, Exposure, Structural Vulnerability, Fragility

References

Cheng, C. T., Hsieh, P. S., Lina, P. S., Yen, Y. T., & Chan, C. H. Probability Seismic Hazard Mapping of Taiwan.

Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58(5), 1583-1606.

Cutter, S.L, (1996). Vulnerability to Environmental Hazard, Progress in Human Geography, 20(4), 529-539.

Lee, C. T., & Tsai, B. R. (2008). Mapping Vs30 in Taiwan. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci, 19(6), 671-682.

Liao, W. I., Loh, C. H., & Tsai, K. C. (2006). Study on the fragility of building structures in Taiwan. Natural hazards, 37(1-2), 55-69.

Mohraz, B. (1976). A study of earthquake response spectra for different geological conditions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 66(3), 915-935.

Seed, H. B., Ugas, C., & Lysmer, J. (1976). Site-dependent spectra for earthquake-resistant design. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 66(1), 221-243.

Shyu, J. B. H., Sieh, K., Chen, Y. G., & Liu, C. S. (2005). Neotectonic architecture of Taiwan and its implications for future large earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 110(B8).

Silva, V., Crowley, H., Varum, H., & Pinho, R. (2014a). Seismic risk assessment for mainland Portugal. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 13(2), 429-457.

Silva, V., Crowley, H., Varum, H., & Pinho, R. (2014b). Development of a vulnerability model for the Portuguese RC building stock. Bull Earthq Eng, submitted.

Vilanova, S. P., & Fonseca, J. F. (2007). Probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment for Portugal. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97(5), 1702-1717.

Wang, Y. J., Chan, C. H., Lee, Y. T., Ma, K. F., Shyu J. B. H., Rau, R. J., & Cheng C. T. (2015). Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments for Taiwan. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., submitted.

Wu, Y. M., Hsiao, N. C., & Teng, T. L. (2004). Relationships between strong ground motion peak values and seismic loss during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. Natural Hazards, 32(3), 357-373.

Youngs, R. R., Coppersmith, K. J., Power, M. S., & Swan III, F. H. (1985). Seismic hazard assessment of the Hanford region, Eastern Washington State.

An account with this site is required in order to view papers. Click here to create an account.