Last modified: 2016-05-03
Abstract
To assess how seismic hazard in Taiwan changes with time, we have developed a new approach, combining the Brownian Passage Time and Coulomb stress change, and implemented the state-of-the-art parameters of seismogenic sources from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM). The Brownian Passage Time (BPT) was adopted to model rupture recurrence intervals of specified fault sources inferring from excavation data. We then considered the time elapsed since the last rupture from instrumental and historical catalogues in the BPT model to derive probability evolution in long-term period. The model shows lower rupture probability for faults that ruptured recently and vice versa. We also evaluate short-term rate change based on static stress interaction between seismogenic sources. An increased stress state promotes future events probability, whereas stress decrease inhibits seismic activity. By considering ground motion prediction equations for different types of sources, we further assess the time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard. Our new combined model suggests that crustal active faults with short recurrence intervals, long elapsed time since the last rupture of event in long term, and/or occurrence of large earthquakes in short-term pose higher levels of hazard in the vicinity of active faults in the Coastal Plain and along the Longitudinal Valley in the western and eastern Taiwan, respectively. We also assess seismic hazard in the mid of 2016. The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinung ML6.4 earthquake significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic sources and raised hazard level in southern Taiwan. Our approach draws on the advantage of incorprating long- and short-term models, and provides earthquake probability constraints, which are more detailed than any of the models could provide on their own. It thus offers decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering.
Keywords
References
Campbell, K. W., P. C. Thenhaus, T. P. Barnard, and D. B. Hampson, 2002, Seismic hazard model for loss estimation and risk management in Taiwan. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 22, 743-754, doi: 10.1016/S0267-7261(02)00095-7.
Catalli, F., Chan, C.H., 2012. New insights into the application of the Coulomb model in real time, Geophysical Journal International, 188, 583–599, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05276.x.
Chan, C.H., and Stein, R.S., 2009, Stress evolution following the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake: Consequences for afterslip, relaxation, aftershocks, and departures from Omori decay, Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.04069.x, 2009.
Chan, C.H., Wu, Y.M., 2012: The burst of seismicity after the 2010 M6.4 Jiashian earthquake and its implication of short-term seismic hazard in southern Taiwan, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 51, 231-239, doi:10.1016/j.jseaes.2012.08.011.
Chan, C.H., Sørensen, M.B., Stromeyer, D., Grünthal, G., Heidbach, O., Hakimhashemi, A., Catalli, F., 2010 Forecasting Italian seismicity through a spatio-temporal physical model: importance of considering time dependency and reliability of the forecast, Annals of Geophysics, 53(3), doi: 10.4401/ag-4761.
Chan, C. H., Y. M. Wu, and T. L. Lin, 2012, A short term seismic hazard assessment in Christchurch, New Zealand, after the M7.1, 4 September 2010 Darfield earthquake: An application of a smoothing Kernel and rate-and-state friction model, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 23, doi: 10.3319/TAO.2011.09.23.02(T).
Chan, C.H., Wu, Y.M., Cheng, C.T., Lin, P.S., and Wu, Y.C., 2013, Time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and its application to Hualien City, Taiwan, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 1-16, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-1-2013.
Chang, C.H., Wu, Y.M., Shin, T.C., and Wang, C.-Y., 2000, Relocation of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 11(3), 581–590.
Chen, Chi-Hsuan, Jui-Pin Wang, Yih-Min Wu, Chung-Han Chan, and Chien-Hsin Chang, 2012, A study of earthquake inter-occurrence times distribution models in Taiwan, Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0496-7.
Chen, W.S., Yang, C.C., Yen, I.C., Lee, L.S., Lee, K.J., Yang, H.C., Chang, H.C., Ota, Y., Lin, C.W., Lin, W.H., Shih, T.S., Lu, S.T., 2007, Late Holocene paleoseismicity of the south- ern part of the Chelunpu Fault in Central Taiwan: evidence from the Chushan excavation site. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97(1B), 1–13.
Cheng, C. T., S. J. Chiou, C. T. Lee, and Y. B. Tsai, 2007: Study on probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Taiwan after Chi-Chi earthquake, Journal. of GeoEngineering, 2, 19-28, 2007.
Cocco, M., Rice, J.R, 2002, Pore pressure and poroelasticity effects in Coulomb stress analysis of earthquake interactions, Journal of Geophysical Research, 107(B2), 2030, doi:10.1029/2000JB000138.
Cornell, C. A., 1968, Engineering Seismic risk analysis, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 58, 1583-1606.
Dieterich, J., 1994, A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, Journal of Geophysical Research, 99, 2601–2618.
Ellsworth, WL, Matthews, MV, Nadeau, RM, Nishenko, SP, Reasenberg, PA, Simpson, RW, 1999, A physically based earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long-term earthquake probabilities. U S Geological Survey Open-File Report, 99-522.
Giardini, D., G. Grunthal, K.M. Shedlock, 1999, The GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map, Annals of Geophysics, 42 (6), 1225–1230.
Hakimhashemi, A. H., 2009, Time-dependent occurrence rates of large earthquakes in the Dead Sea fault zone and applications to probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Potsdam, Germany.
Harris, R. A., 1998: Introduction to special section: Stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazard, Journal of Geophysical Research, 103, 24347–24358.
Kagan, Y.Y. and Knopoff, L., 1981, Stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs, Journal of Geophysical Research, 86(4), 2853–2862.
King, G. C. P., R. S. Stein, and J. Lin, 1994, Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84, 935-953.
Lin, P.S., 2009. Ground-motion attenuation relationship and path-effect study using Taiwan Data set, Ph.D. Dissertation, Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan (in Chinese).
Lin P.S., Lee, C.T., 2008. Ground-motion attenuation relationships for subduction-zone earthquakes in northeastern Taiwan, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98(1), 220–240, doi: 10.1785/0120060002.
Lin P.S., 2013. Selection and weighting of ground motion prediction equations for seismic hazard analysis in Taiwan, The 2nd TEM-NIED Workshop.
McGuire, R., 1976: FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis, U.S. Geol. Surv., Open-File Rept. 76-67, 90 pp.
McGuire, R., 2001, Deterministic vs. probabilistic earthquake hazard and risks. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 21, 377-384.
Minoura, K., F. Imamura, D. Sugawara, Y. Kono, T. Iwashita, 2001, The 869 Jogan tsunami deposit and recurrence interval of large-scale tsunami on the Pacific coast of northeast Japan, J. Nat. Disaster Sci., 23, 83–88.
Nettles, M., Ekstroem, G., Koss, H.C., 2011, Centroid-moment-tensor analysis of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake and its larger foreshocks and aftershocks, Earth Planets Space, 63, 519–523.
Wang, Y.J., Chan, C.H., Lee, Y.T., Ma, K.F., Shyu, J.B.H., Rau, R.J., Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments for Taiwan, submitted.
Wu, Y. M. and L. Y. Chiao, 2006, Seismic quiescence before the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan Mw7.6 earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 96, 321-327.
Youngs, R.R., and Coppersmith, K.J., 1985, Implications of fault slip rates and earthquake recurrence models to probabilistic seismic hazard estimates. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 75, 939-964.